Threat of Climate Change
"Global warming is real; the risks it poses are real; and the American people have a right to know it and a responsibility to do something about it. The sooner Congress understands that, the sooner we can protect our nation--and our planet--from increased flood, fire, drought, and deadly heat waves." President Bill Clinton, July 25, 1998. (Quotation from transcript of President Clinton’s radio address of July 25, 1998)

Deaths Due to Global Warming (updated May 13, 2007)
The Threat of Mass Extinction new June1,2006

Species Threatened by Climate Change updated July 26, 2006
Coral Bleaching & Disintegration updated June 1, 2006
The Trend to Dead Zones in Oceans updated March 1, 2008
Floods
More Intense Hurricanes on the Way
Heat Waves
Increasing Power Outages
Forests and Wildfires
Global Warming, Forests & Bark Beetles (updated February 9, 2007)

Threat to Boreal Forests (updated June 1, 2006)
Sea Level Rise of 3 feet by 2100, research by Jonathan T. Overpeck, Bette L.Otto-Bliesner et al
Sea Level Rise & Impact on Island States
Sea Level Rise & Climate Change Refugees
Sea Level Rise & Impact on US Cities
Coastal Wetlands
U.S. Coasts
San Francisco Bay-Example of Cost Impact of Sea Level Rise on Coastal City
Spread of Infectious Diseases
Escalating Increase in Allergens
Global Warming And Asthma
Loss of Arctic Sea Ice  updated May 4, 2007
Weather-Related Damage
Disappearing Beaches
Damage & Loss of World's Ecosystems & Biomes
Antarctica
Effect on Stratospheric Ozone
Effect on World's Food Production
Thawing Permafrost & Tundra As Sources of CO2 Emissions updated June 20, 2006
Disappearing Glaciers
Water Shortages & More Droughts
Increasing ocean storms and coastal erosion
Greenland - A key to accelerating climate change
The Sky is Rising

Disappearing Plankton - Bottom of the Food Chain
Threat to Krill - Food Source of Fish, Seabirds, Squids, Whales, Seals, Penguins
Threat to Winter Sports Industry
Carbon dioxide emissions increase acidity of ocean waters

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Deaths Due to Climate Change
A study, by scientists at the World Health Organization (WHO) determined that 154,000 people die every year from the effects of global warming, from malaria to malnutrition, children in developing nations seemingly the most vulnerable. These numbers could almost double by 2020.

"We estimate that climate change may already be causing in the region of 154,000 deaths...a year," Professor Andrew Haines of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine told a climate change conference in Moscow. Haines said the study suggested climate change could "bring some health benefits, such as lower cold-related mortality and greater crop yields in temperate zones, but these will be greatly outweighed by increased rates of other diseases." Haines mentioned that small shifts in temperatures, for instance, could extend the range of mosquitoes that spread malaria. Water supplies could be contaminated by floods, for instance, which could also wash away crops. (The World Health Report 2002: Reducing Risks and Promoting Healthy Life, Chapter 4, Identifying Major Risks to Health, p.26) (Also See Planet Ark Story) Also Killer Heat Waves & WHO Website: Climate Change and Human Health - Risks and Responses

Species Threatened by Global Warming
There are estimates among scientists that one million species are threatened with extinction by climate change. In the journal Nature researchers say in their study, Extinction Risk From Climate Change, concluded that from 15 to 37% of all the species in the regions studied could be driven to extinction by the climate changes between now and 2050. The study's lead author, Professor Chris Thomas, of the University of Leeds, UK, says: "If the projections can be extrapolated globally, and to other groups of land animals and plants, our analyses suggest that well over a million species could be threatened with extinction." Read BBC report See (or read transcript) May 20, 2004 Online Newshour Video of discussion of climate-driven  extinctions (Interview of researchers Lee Hannah & Camille Parmesan)

Because of climate change, one-fourth of all plants and animal species could face extincition by 2100.(Climate change documentary, Too Hot Not To Handle)

Birds
Sooty Shearwater
The Sooty Shearwater, a U.S west coast bird that at one time numbered 5 million, now numbers about 450,000. "Warmer water has reduced upwellings in the Pacific Ocean, which bring the Shearwaters' main source of food, squid and plankton to the surface," says Barnaby Briggs, official with Britain's Royal Society for the Protection of Birds.Quoting from an EPA website: "Populations of sooty shearwaters off the coast of California and Washington declined by 90 percent between 1987 and 1994, a period when sea surface temperatures increased. The decline represents a potential loss of more than 4 million birds. The warmer water triggers a reduction in upwelling, a circulatory process that brings nutrient-rich water to the ocean’s surface. Over the past two decades, reduced upwelling apparently has caused a 70 percent decrease in zooplankton, a key food source for shearwaters and the small fish that the shearwaters eat."  EPA Website

Spoon-billed sandpiper
In North America, the Arctic tundra is expected to retreat northwards and be replaced by forest. The globally threatened spoon-billed sandpiper could lose 60 percent of its nesting sites. [118]

The Capercaillie
In the U.K the capercaillie-the world's largest grouse-is predicted to lose 99 percent of its pine forest habitat, if expected temperatures increase reaches 4.7 degrees Fahrenheit by mid-century.[118]

The Scottish crossbill
Scottish crossbill, found only in Scotland.

Migration Timing
Birds and animals are stressed by rising temperatures in areas to which they migrate. They are now heading north and south away from equatorial regions that have become too hot. The problem is will the food and shelter resources be as valuable to the birds as what they left behind?  Already about 11% of all birds are threatened with extinction, while two-thirds of the planet's 9600 bird species are in a state of decline, says the IUCN. Are we hastening more bird species to the endangered list?

Migratory birds, while flying nonstop hundreds or even thousands of miles, depend on a relatively stable weather scenario, expecting their food resources to be in place. Timing is everything, especially to migrating birds. Sea level rise is likely to threaten prime feeding and breeding grounds for millions of birds throughout the world, including mallards, red knots, pintails, plovers, warblers and orioles. [38]

The migration of Canada geese is being affected now by climate change. In response to increasing temperatures, these geese are arriving in Hudson Bay, during the summer, several weeks earlier than their food supply allows. Their primary food is marsh plants, which grow in response to the length of days, not to changes in temperature, and sprout after the geese arrive. But the birds are hungry and cannot wait for the plants to sprout. The geese eat the plants' roots, decimating their own future food supply, while threatening this habitat used by other bird species. [96]

Arctic Warming
A constant warming of the Arctic is now threatening populations of birds of the region, according to a report by the World Wildlife Fund. In their study the WWF showed that rising temperatures would push wooded areas northward, eventually replacing the tundra, that is host to millions of birds. Arctic warming, as much as 4 degrees Fahrenheit warmer, would be responsible for the extinction of several bird species.

Adelie Penguin
Wayne Trivelpiece,who directs Antarctic seabird research for the U.S. Antarctic Research Division at the Southwest Fisheries Science Center in La Jolla, noted in 2004 a 50% dropoff in Adelie penguin populations on the Antarctic Peninsula since 1994.

Emperor Penguins
Between 1950 and 2001 Antarctica's emperor penguin population has decreased by 50%. "We knew since the 1980s that emperor penguins had declined, but it is only today, because of the improvements of our knowledge in the climate-ocean processes, that we have been able to understand why they have decreased," said Henri Weimerskirch of the French National Center for Scientific Research in Villers en Bois, France. Weimerskirch believes that climate change is responsible for this penguin's decline. A staple of the emperor's diet is krill. Sea ice is decreasing in the Southern Ocean, and with less sea ice there is less algae underneath the sea ice that krill eat. Less sea ice, less algae, less krill, less penguins and other animals. See Threat to Krill -
Food Source for Fish, Seabirds, Squids, Whales, Seals, Penguins and See Report By John Roach National Geographic News

North - Central United States Ducks
According to one study, global warming could cause breeding populations of ducks in the north-central United States to decline by more than half—from 5 million birds today to between 2.1 and 2.7 million by the year 2060. (See EPA Website)

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Animals
Polar Bears
In June, 2005, 40 members of the polar bear specialist group of the World Conservation Union concluded that polar bears -- the world's largest bear -- should now be classified as a "vulnerable" species based on a likely 30 percent decline in their worldwide population over the next 35 to 50 years. There are now 20,000 to 25,000 polar bears across the Arctic. Arctic  sea ice has declined over one  million  square miles, the size of Norway, Denmark and  Sweden combined. As they need sea ice to hunt for seals, decreasing arctic ice will lead to the demise of polar bears. See Washington Post article

According to the International Union for the Conservation of Nature, the polar bears around Hudson Bay now number about 1000, down from 1200 not too long ago. In late fall the polar bears around Hudson Bay wait for the formation of sea ice to allow them to hunt seals. Nowadays ice melts off the Hudson Bay three weeks earlier, which means that much less time to pursue and feed on seal pups. It also means they have that much less time to gorge on seals and increase their bodies' fat stores. Compared to polar bears 20 years ago, the bears around Hudson Bay are 10% thinner and have 10% fewer cubs. According to a climate model developed by Canada's equivalent of the EPA, Environment Canada, this sub-Arctic area of tundra within 30 years could become New England-like with a temperate leafy   forest. No place for polar bears.  [64]

Polar bears need sea ice so they can find mates and hunt for seals. A retreat and loss of sea ice is making it harder for these animals to maintain their populations and get enough food. Pregnant females and those with cubs may be particularly at risk. [92]

Melting sea ice is leaving greater and greater distances for polar bears to travel in their hunts for food. In December, 2005, marine biologists from the US Minerals Management Service attending the sixteenth biennial conference on the biology of sea mammals in San Diego, California, reported that they found 4 polar bears drowned off  the northern coast of Alaska last fall. They also described seeing more polar bears in the open sea, some as far as 60 miles offshore. They noted that 20% of bears seen in the area in September, 2005 were in the water, while in previous years, records show that 4% of sighted bears were swimming. Read Report by Tim Simonite found in BioEd Online

A study on instances of cannabilism among polar bears in the Beaufort Sea has been reported in the online version of the journal Polar Biology on April 27, 2006 by researchers of the U.S. Geological Survey, Alaska Science Center, Canadian Wildlife Service and others. One episode involved a polar bear killing a female polar bear in  her den, shortly after giving birth. Another, when a yearling male was killed. Researchers noted in their abstract that "during 24 years of research on polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea region of northern Alaska and 34 years in northwestern Canada, we have not seen other incidents of polar bears stalking, killing, and eating other polar bears. We hypothesize that nutritional stresses related to the longer ice-free seasons that have occurred in the Beaufort Sea in recent years may have led to the cannibalism incidents we observed in 2004."

The town of Churchill located in Canada's Manitoba Province and on the southwest shore of Hudson Bay has been the starting point of travelers who wish to see polar bears. But with the onslaught of climate change and the fading Hudson Bay ice (and the chance to hunt seals on the ice), the numbers of polar bears frequenting this area are dwindling, and the chances of seeing them are fewer.

Listen to (or read the transcript) NPR's Living on Earth as Steve Curwood interviews citizens of Churchill discussing their polar bear guests

Grizzly Bears
As with Alaska's warmer winters that produce healthier populations of white spruce bark beetles, warmer winters in Wyoming and Yellowstone National Park are finding healthier populations of bark beetles in whitebark pines, one of  the main food sources for grizzly bears. See NRDC Report
With whitebark pines threatened by extinction, we could lose the remaining 1000 grizzly bears, now living mostly in Yellowstone and Glacier National Park.

Walrus
In the Defenders of Wildlife publication, Defender, their summer, 2006 issue reported researchers discovering 9 abandoned baby walruses, crying and alone in the Bering Sea. Walrus mothers generally stay with their young for two years, says Carin Ashjian, a biologist at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution. Ashjian was one of a group of researchers that released a study in April, 2006 on walruses. Adult walruses use sea-ice to rest on before continuing their dives for food. The research team, as one of their findings, discovered that water temperatures in the Bering Sea had climbed 6 degrees Fahrenheit since 2002. About the stranded baby walruses, the researchers surmise that the adults were forced to travel great distances in search of food and became separated from their calves. Walrus calves may follow their mothers out into the sea, or be left on sea ice platforms, while the mother hunts. Such walrus babies unable to fend for themselves may either starve or drown, except for the lucky 9 saved by the researchers.

Caribou
Sea ice also serves as a seasonal migration route for caribou. Heavier snowfall and freezing rain events will increase the energy expenditure of caribou and reindeer when migrating and searching for food, and could lead to significant population declines over time. The Peary caribou have declined from 24,000 in 1961 to 1100 in 1997 because of more moisture in the air leading to heavier snowfall.  [93]

Alligators
Florida alligators are sensitive to saltwater encroachment as sea level rises and storm surges increase, as they lack the salt-secreting glands of the crocodile. As the salt water content of their habitat increases, they search farther inland for fresher water. But they are in-between a rock and a hard place, as they move towards suburban and agricultural property.  [120]

Turtles
Turtles may be threatened by climate change. Sex ratios of hatchling turtles are temperature dependent and increased warmth could potentially lead to all-female populations. See British Trust for Ornithology

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Marine Life See also Coral Bleaching and Disintegration On this Page

Disappearing Plankton - Bottom of the Food Chain

The ability of the oceans to absorb carbon dioxide may be at risk. Presently oceans are absorbing about 2 billion tons of carbon annually [3] . A report in Nature, August 1995, suggests that the oceans may be losing fixed nitrogen, an essential fertilizer that allows phytoplankton to grow. Phytoplankton absorb and fix carbon that is then transferred to the deep ocean. If in fact the oceans are losing nitrogen as they warm, they will tend to absorb less carbon, boosting the rate of carbon dioxide buildup in the atmosphere. [24]

Plankton are a major carbon sink in addition to the forests, other green plants, the permafrost, the earth's soil and atmosphere. Plankton take in about half of all the world's CO2, using the carbon for growth, while releasing oxygen during the process of photosythesis. During the past 20 years there has been a stark decline, more than 9%, in primary production of plankton, while in the same period plankton of the North Atlantic has decreased by 7%. Less plankton; less carbon uptake.Watson W. Gregg, a NASA biologist at the Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland says that the greatest loss of phytoplankton has occurred where ocean temperatures have risen most significantly between the early 1980's and the late 1990's. In the North Atlantic summertime sea surface temperatures rose about 1.3 degrees Fahrenheit during that period, Gregg said, while in the North Pacific the ocean's surface temperatures rose about 7/10ths of a degree.(San Francisco Chronicle, David Perlman, Science Editor, October 6, 2003).  See NASA Report on Ocean Plant Life Absorbing Less Carbon

In the Arctic, loss of sea ice associated with warming could result in the diminution of phytoplankton populations. This could lead to ‘knock-on effects’ throughout the Arctic food chain, including declines in the stocks of several key prey species of cetaceans, such as copepods and plankton-feeding fish, including Arctic cod, a key prey species for narwhal and beluga whales. Warming and the attendant ice melt might result in greater stratification of the water column and decreased nutrient resupply, limiting the growth of phytoplankton populations that are a critical link in the cetacean food chain in the region. See Report by William Burns, Director of Communications & Research Associate, Pacific Institute for Studies in Development, Environment and Security  As a consequence primarily of the burning of fossil fuels, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's most recent assessment projects that temperatures will rise 4 - 10 degrees F or more this century.In a report by Pacific Institute Research Associate William Burns, concludes that this could prove disastrous for many species of cetaceans (whales, dolphins and porpoises). In the Antarctic, where 90% of the world's great whales feed, rising temperatures could reduce sea ice by more than 40% this century. This may severely deplete the abundance of krill, a zooplankton species that are the primary source of food for whales, as well as penguins in the Southern Hemisphere. In the Arctic, warming trends could result in the total disappearance of the region's year-round icepack within the next fifty years, diminishing the abundance of phytoplankton species relied on by endangered whale species such as narwhal and beluga. Reductions in sea ice could also open up the Northwest Passage, exposing species in the region to increased ship traffic and threats associated with mineral exploitation. In other regions of the world, warming may also alter ocean upwelling patterns, creating massive blooms of toxics associated with the death of thousands of marine species over the past decade, as well as increase precipitation in some regions, resulting in the runoff of more pollutants from land into coastal waterways inhabited by whales, dolphins and porpoises.  See July 11, 2000 Press Release by Pacific Institute

Threat to Krill - Food Source for Fish, Seabirds, Squids, Whales, Seals, Penguins

Krill, a large zooplankton, is a food source for whales, seals, penguins, seabirds, squids and fish. Because of increasing temperatures (about 4 degrees Fahrenheit) in Antarctica, areas of sea ice in this region have diminished significantly. And the algae that grows on the underside of the shrinking sea ice is therefore also diminishing. The algae is a food source of krill, which is disappearing in antarctic waters. Scientists report a tenfold decline in krill populations during the past 10 years. Besides a decline in its foods source, part of the problem of disappearing krill is the growth in numbers of other tiny marine animals called salps. See NOAA Page Warming antarctic waters have brought about a population explosion of the salp, a jellyfish-like creature, which feeds on another krill food-source, phytoplankton and tolerates warmer water than krill.. And as krill is a food source of the Adelie penguin, the latter is also disappearing. University of Montana ecologist William Fraser has studied the Adelie penguins for 22 years and has seen their numbers drop 40%. Besides the lack of krill, Fraser believes that warmth could be causing problems for the penguin by bringing spring snowfall that buries the Adelie's eggs under snowbanks. Listen to researchers Angus Atkinson & William Fraser discuss loss of Antarctic krill November 3, 2004

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Stuart Chapman, World Wildlife Fund's (WWF) whale specialist, said: "The world's largest problem could mean extinction in the Antarctic for the world's largest animal. The Blue whale population in the Antarctic was drastically reduced by commercial whaling - from 250,000 a century ago to probably below 1,000 today. The population has shown no signs of recovery since the species was officially protected from whaling more than 35 year ago."  The blue whale, which weighs 160 tons and measures up to 30 yards long, is the largest animal ever to live on Earth. WWF said that apart from the effects of climate change, krill were also threatened by an increase in commercial fishing. Stuart Chapman said, "It would be a catastrophe for the natural world if the decline of the blue whale was accelerated by new commercial pressures. It would be the final nail in the coffin."  See World Wildlife Fund  Apart from commercial boats, the decreasing sea ice will be sufficient to threaten krill populations and those animals that depend on krill.

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In the waters off the U.S west coast, krill  collect near the drop-off of the contental shelf into deep ocean. During the daylight hours, the krill are found about 1000 feet down, and come to surface at night to feed on phytoplankton.

It is not only the blue whale threatened by declining krill, but other baleen whales also, such as the humpback, the right whale, fin whale, Bryde's whale, northern minke, antarctic minke, Eden's ("small-type") whale, and sei whale.

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Krill populations in the Estuary and Gulf of St. Lawrence have declined dramatically, according to scientists with the Maurice Lamontagne Institute, a marine science center associated with the federal agency Fisheries and Oceans Canada. "The biomass of macrozooplankton [the krill] in these two areas [the Gulf and the Estuary] has dropped from 32 metric tons per square kilometer (km²) in 1994 to 10 tons per km² in 2003, which represents a reduction of 70 percent in 10 years," researchers Michel Harvey and Michel Starr write, in a publication (reports the Environmental News Service) of the Maurice Lamontagne Institute.

The Estuary and Gulf of St. Lawrence have historically seen huge areas of krill, and each summer, from 30 to 40 whales have been spotted in the Laurentian Channel, a cold water current which starts along the coast of Newfoundland and ends in Saguenay Fjord. But in the summer of 2003, the researchers identified only 15 whales. "Reduction in the krill is perhaps due to warming of the climate" says Dr. Harvey. See Enviromental News Service for more

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For a few months in spring 2005 off the coast of California, Oregon and Washington, krill disappeared completely, resulting in seabirds dying by the thousands, a halting of nesting of Cassin's and rhinoceros auklets, cormorant and murre species on the Farallon Islands, 27 miles west of San Francisco. The absence of krill also deprived marine mammals of food, leaving many along the coast malnourished.

Ordinarily west coastal waters are cold. Winds off the northern west coast come out of the Northwest, pushing surface waters resulting in upwelling. The upwelling brings nutrients up from the depths. The phytoplankton utilizes the nutrients and provide the food source for krill, the largest of zooplankton, measuring around one inch in length.. During the daytime the krill stay at depths of 1000 feet, rising at night to feed on the phytoplankton on the surface.

But in the months of May and April 2005 the winds shifted, reducing the upwelling, the nutrients for the phytoplankton and the food for krill, leading to the dieoff krill, leading to the dieoff of seabirds and malnourishment of marine mammals.

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Whales

Whales have less success breeding in warmer waters. Can whales adapt or will their numbers be challenged as global warming proceeds. See British Trust for Ornithology article

Pacific Coast Crabs
With oncoming global warming, some crab species along the Pacific coast may face extinction. A study shows that small crabs who live in warmer waters near Pacific beaches are threatened by rising temperatures. In a study by Jonathon H. Stillman, a marine biologist at Stanford University, the scientist demonstrated the low tolerance for minute changes in temperatures in crabs located in the Gulf of California. Stillman's findings were published in the July 4, 2003 issue of the journal Science. See July 4, 2003 Environmental News Network Story

Stillman said other studies have already noted that at least one crab species along North America's West Coast has disappeared from a traditional habitat. Studies also have shown that some other coastal species have moved farther north to escape the temperature rise in southern waters.

Seals
Those species of seal that need ice for resting, pup rearing and molting, will also be at risk. [92]

The Threat of Mass Extinction
The first recorded mass extinction of species took place 440 million years ago, the Ordovician extinction and the second deadliest of the five great periods of extinction. During that era, fossil records show an abrupt die-off of two-thirds of the Earth’s species. During the late Devonian period, about 375 million years ago, another mass extinction occurred that resulted in most of the planet’s fish species dying. About 250 million years ago the third,  and most severe mass extinction took place, the Permian-Triassic extinction or "the Great Dying." This die-off resulted in loss of almost all marine life and most of the land species.The fourth mass extinction took place about 205 million years ago at the end of the Triassic Period. The fifth mass extinction took place about 65 million years ago. The majestic era of the dinosaurs ended when about half of all species died off, having existed 165 million years. And now a sixth mass extinction is underway.

In January, 2003 a study by lead author, biologist Terry Root, and 5 colleagues at Stanford's Institute for International Studies involved reviewing scientific studies pertaining to 1,400 plant and animal species. The Stanford researchers determined that about 80% of those species have undergone range or behavioral changes likely caused by climate change. "If we've had so much change with just 1 degree, think of how much we will have with 10 degrees," Terry Root said, referring to the estimate by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change of a 3 to 10 degree Fahrenheit increase by the end of the century. "In my opinion, we're sitting at the edge of a mass extinction."

In a study published in the journal Nature, January 8, 2004, its authors found that 15 to 37% of all species in the study regions could become extinct from expected temperature increases by 2050.(126) “If the projections can be extrapolated globally, and to other groups of land animals and plants, our analyses suggest that well over a million species could be threatened with extinction as a result of climate change,” said lead author Chris Thomas of the University of Leeds, England.

“This study makes clear that climate change is the biggest new extinction threat,” says co-author Lee Hannah. “The combination of increasing habitat loss and climate change together is particularly worrying. Increases in temperature can force a species to move toward its preferred, usually cooler, climate range. If habitat destruction has already altered those habitats, the species will have no safe haven.”… “It's the climate changes that would occur by 2050 that would eventually lead to that level of extinction.” Said Hannah on the NewsHour May 20, 2004.

Co-author Guy Midgley of the National Botanical Institute in Cape Town, South Africa said, “In some cases we found that there will no longer be anywhere climatically suitable for these species to live; in other cases they may be unable to reach distant regions where the climate will be suitable. Other species are expected to survive in much reduced areas, where they may then be at risk from other threats.”(126)

The Nature paper by Thomas et al concluded that minimum expected climate change scenarios for 2050 produce fewer projected extinctions (about 18% averaging across the different methods). With mid-range temperature increases about 24% of studied species will become extinct after 2050, while if maximum temperature increases are brought about, than a possible 35% of species will be lost. Therefore about 15-20% of all land species could possibly be saved from extinction, given that we derive a minimum of warming, rather than the maximum. (126)

Biologist Camille Parmesan, one of the first scientists to study the effect of climate change on species, is concerned with animals and plants that are forced to move north to find a climate that suits them, as temperatures rise. Says Parmesan, “The question is, how many species are going to be able to just move north and live perfectly happily, and how many are going to be obstructed, either because they are such habitat specialists that there just isn't any food for them to the North or they're being delayed because they are dependent on some plant; the plant has a slower rate of change, therefore, they can't move north.”

In April, 2006 a study, Global Warming and Extinctions of Endemic Species from Biodiversity Hotspots, was published in the journal Conservation Biology. It investigated the potential of global warming on 25 tropical hot spots, places that exhibited an unusually high degree of diversity. Of the approximately 9800 species of birds on the planet, these hot spots were home to about 3500 species. “And of that, we would be talking about 43% not having climatically suitable habitat in 100 years,” says Toronto University Professor Jay Malcolm, lead author of the study. These hotspots have species that are unique to these areas only. “We’re talking extinction. Once they’re gone -- that’s it,” Malcolm says. Malcolm acknowledges that many experts regard as a conservative estimate that greenhouse gas emissions will double by the end of the century. As conservative a scenario as Malcolm anticipates, we cannot come anywhere close to doubling emissions by century's end, without, as NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies director Jim Hansen puts it, making this an entirely different planet.

The following is a segment of an essay Jim Hansen did in the July 13, 2006 New York Review of Books. It seems a good fit for this section:
Studies of more than one thousand species of plants, animals, and insects, including butterfly ranges charted by members of the public, found an average migration rate toward the North and South Poles of about four miles per decade in the second half of the twentieth century. That is not fast enough. During the past thirty years the lines marking the regions in which a given average temperature prevails ("isotherms") have been moving poleward at a rate of about thirty-five miles per decade. That is the size of a county in Iowa. Each decade the range of a given species is moving one row of counties northward.

As long as the total movement of isotherms toward the poles is much smaller than the size of the habitat, or the ranges in which the animals live, the effect on species is limited. But now the movement is inexorably toward the poles and totals more than a hundred miles over the past several decades. If emissions of greenhouse gases continue to increase at the current rate—"business as usual"—then the rate of isotherm movement will double in this century to at least seventy miles per decade. If we continue on this path, a large fraction of the species on Earth, as many as 50 percent or more, may become extinct.

The species most at risk are those in polar climates and the biologically diverse slopes of alpine regions. Polar animals, in effect, will be pushed off the planet. Alpine species will be pushed toward higher altitudes, and toward smaller, rockier areas with thinner air; thus, in effect, they will also be pushed off the planet. A few such species, such as polar bears, no doubt will be "rescued" by human beings, but survival in zoos or managed animal reserves will be small consolation to bears or nature lovers.

Some of the Large Animals Threatened

Polar Bears
In June, 2005, 40 members of the polar bear specialist group of the World Conservation Union concluded that polar bears -- the world's largest bear -- should now be classified as a "vulnerable" species based on a likely 30 percent decline in their worldwide population over the next 35 to 50 years. There are now 20,000 to 25,000 polar bears across the Arctic. Arctic  sea ice has declined over one  million  square miles, the size of Norway, Denmark and  Sweden combined. As they need sea ice to hunt for seals, decreasing arctic ice will lead to the demise of polar bears. See Washington Post article

According to the International Union for the Conservation of Nature, the polar bears around Hudson Bay now number about 1000, down from 1200 not too long ago. In late fall the polar bears around Hudson Bay wait for the formation of sea ice to allow them to hunt seals. Nowadays ice melts off the Hudson Bay three weeks earlier, which means that much less time to pursue and feed on seal pups. It also means they have that much less time to gorge on seals and increase their bodies' fat stores. Compared to polar bears 20 years ago, the bears around Hudson Bay are 10% thinner and have 10% fewer cubs. According to a climate model developed by Canada's equivalent of the EPA, Environment Canada, this sub-Arctic area of tundra within 30 years could become New England-like with a temperate leafy   forest. No place for polar bears.  [64]

Polar bears need sea ice so they can find mates and hunt for seals. A retreat and loss of sea ice is making it harder for these animals to maintain their populations and get enough food. Pregnant females and those with cubs may be particularly at risk. [92]

Melting sea ice is leaving greater and greater distances for polar bears to travel in their hunts for food. In December, 2005, marine biologists from the US Minerals Management Service attending the sixteenth biennial conference on the biology of sea mammals in San Diego, California, reported that they found 4 polar bears drowned off  the northern coast of Alaska last fall. They also described seeing more polar bears in the open sea, some as far as 60 miles offshore. They noted that 20% of bears seen in the area in September, 2005 were in the water, while in previous years, records show that 4% of sighted bears were swimming. Read Report by Tim Simonite found in BioEd Online

A study on instances of cannabilism among polar bears in the Beaufort Sea has been reported in the online version of the journal Polar Biology on April 27, 2006 by researchers of the U.S. Geological Survey, Alaska Science Center, Canadian Wildlife Service and others. One episode involved a polar bear killing a female polar bear in  her den, shortly after giving birth. Another, when a yearling male was killed. Researchers noted in their abstract that "during 24 years of research on polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea region of northern Alaska and 34 years in northwestern Canada, we have not seen other incidents of polar bears stalking, killing, and eating other polar bears. We hypothesize that nutritional stresses related to the longer ice-free seasons that have occurred in the Beaufort Sea in recent years may have led to the cannibalism incidents we observed in 2004."

The town of Churchill located in Canada's Manitoba Province and on the southwest shore of Hudson Bay has been the starting point of travelers who wish to see polar bears. But with the onslaught of climate change and the fading Hudson Bay ice (and the chance to hunt seals on the ice), the numbers of polar bears frequenting this area are dwindling, and the chances of seeing them are fewer.

Listen to (or read the transcript) NPR's Living on Earth as Steve Curwood interviews citizens of Churchill discussing their polar bear guests

Grizzly Bears
As with Alaska's warmer winters that produce healthier populations of white spruce bark beetles, warmer winters in Wyoming and Yellowstone National Park are finding healthier populations of bark beetles in whitebark pines, one of  the main food sources for grizzly bears. See NRDC Report

With whitebark pines threatened by extinction, we could lose the remaining 1000 grizzly bears, now living mostly in Yellowstone and Glacier National Park.

Walrus
In the Defenders of Wildlife publication, Defender, their summer, 2006 issue reported researchers discovering 9 abandoned baby walruses, crying and alone in the Bering Sea. Walrus mothers generally stay with their young for two years, says Carin Ashjian, a biologist at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution. Ashjian was one of a group of researchers that released a study in April, 2006 on walruses. Adult walruses use sea-ice to rest on before continuing their dives for food. The research team, as one of their findings, discovered that water temperatures in the Bering Sea had climbed 6 degrees Fahrenheit since 2002. About the stranded baby walruses, the researchers surmise that the adults were forced to travel great distances in search of food and became separated from their calves. Walrus calves may follow their mothers out into the sea, or be left on sea ice platforms, while the mother hunts. Such walrus babies unable to fend for themselves may either starve or drown, except for the lucky 9 saved by the researchers.

Whales

Whales have less success breeding in warmer waters. Can whales adapt or will their numbers be challenged as global warming proceeds. See British Trust for Ornithology article<>

Krill Loss & Threat to Whales, Birds, Penguins
Krill populations in the Estuary and Gulf of St. Lawrence have declined dramatically, according to scientists with the Maurice Lamontagne Institute, a marine science center associated with the federal agency Fisheries and Oceans Canada. "The biomass of macrozooplankton [the krill] in these two areas [the Gulf and the Estuary] has dropped from 32 metric tons per square kilometer (km²) in 1994 to 10 tons per km² in 2003, which represents a reduction of 70 percent in 10 years," researchers Michel Harvey and Michel Starr write, in a publication of the Maurice Lamontagne Institute. The Estuary and Gulf of St. Lawrence have historically seen huge areas of krill, and each summer, from 30 to 40 whales have been spotted in the Laurentian Channel, a cold water current which starts along the coast of Newfoundland and ends in Saguenay Fjord. But in the summer of 2003, the researchers identified only 15 whales. "Reduction in the krill is perhaps due to warming of the climate" says Dr. Harvey. See Enviromental News Service for more

In the Arctic, loss of sea ice associated with warming could result in the diminution of phytoplankton populations. This could lead to ‘knock-on effects’ throughout the Arctic food chain, including declines in the stocks of several key prey species of cetaceans, such as copepods and plankton-feeding fish, including Arctic cod, a key prey species for narwhal and beluga whales. Warming and the attendant ice melt might result in greater stratification of the water column and decreased nutrient resupply, limiting the growth of phytoplankton populations that are a critical link in the cetacean food chain in the region. See Report by William Burns, Director of Communications & Research Associate, Pacific Institute for Studies in Development, Environment and Security  As a consequence primarily of the burning of fossil fuels, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's most recent assessment projects that temperatures will rise 4 - 10 degrees F or more this century.In a report by Pacific Institute Research Associate William Burns, concludes that this could prove disastrous for many species of cetaceans (whales, dolphins and porpoises). In the Antarctic, where 90% of the world's great whales feed, rising temperatures could reduce sea ice by more than 40% this century. This may severely deplete the abundance of krill, a zooplankton species that are the primary source of food for whales, as well as penguins in the Southern Hemisphere. In the Arctic, warming trends could result in the total disappearance of the region's year-round icepack within the next fifty years, diminishing the abundance of phytoplankton species relied on by endangered whale species such as narwhal and beluga. Reductions in sea ice could also open up the Northwest Passage, exposing species in the region to increased ship traffic and threats associated with mineral exploitation. In other regions of the world, warming may also alter ocean upwelling patterns, creating massive blooms of toxics associated with the death of thousands of marine species over the past decade, as well as increase precipitation in some regions, resulting in the runoff of more pollutants from land into coastal waterways inhabited by whales, dolphins and porpoises.  See July 11, 2000 Press Release by Pacific Institute

Pacific Coast Crabs
With oncoming global warming, some crab species along the Pacific coast may face extinction. A study shows that small crabs who live in warmer waters near Pacific beaches are threatened by rising temperatures. In a study by Jonathon H. Stillman, a marine biologist at Stanford University, the scientist demonstrated the low tolerance for minute changes in temperatures in crabs located in the Gulf of California. Stillman's findings were published in the July 4, 2003 issue of the journal Science. See July 4, 2003 Environmental News Network Story

Stillman said other studies have already noted that at least one crab species along North America's West Coast has disappeared from a traditional habitat. Studies also have shown that some other coastal species have moved farther north to escape the temperature rise in southern waters.

Seals
Those species of seal that need ice for resting, pup rearing and molting, will also be at risk. [92]

For More on Mass Extinctions See Coral Bleaching and Disintegration

The Trend to Dead Zones in Oceans
In a study released February 15, 2008 researchers noted that coastal waters are showing dead zones, extending from the state of Washington down to California. The reason for the areas of depleted oxygen is the persistent, strong winds that are pushing surface waters. The unusually strong winds promote the growth of plankton and hold low-oxygen water on the continental shelf for longer periods.

“There have always been unusual weather events, such as hurricanes, droughts, and changes in wind patterns,” said Jack Barth, an OSU professor of physical oceanography and a scientist with PISCO. “So it’s difficult to prove that any one event is caused by global warming. Having said that, we expect global warming to generally cause stronger and more persistent winds. “At this point,” Barth added, “I’d be surprised if this trend towards hypoxic events didn’t continue.”

On viewing video footage of ocean areas off the coast of the Pacific Northwest, Jane Lubchenco, marine biologist at Oregon State University, said, "We seem to have crossed a tipping point….Low-oxygen zones off the Northwest coast appear to be the new normal…..We couldn't believe our eyes. It was so overwhelming and depressing. It appeared that everything that couldn't swim or scuttle away had died…….Levels of oxygen in the summertime have suddenly become much lower than levels in the previous 50 years……..And 2006 broke all records, with parts of the shallow shelf actually becoming anoxic, meaning that they lacked oxygen altogether. We’ve never seen that before.”

“People keep asking us, ‘Is this situation really all that different or not?’” Lubchenco said. “Now we have the answer to that question, and it’s an unequivocal ‘yes.’ The low oxygen levels we’ve measured in the last six years are abnormally low for our system. We haven’t seen conditions like this in many, many decades, and now with varying intensity we’ve seen them in each of the last six summers.”  See Dead Zone Video Footage

Floods
National Climatic Data Center (NOAA) director Thomas Karl predicts that global warming will produce more floods due to increases in precipitation extremes. [74]

Global warming will disrupt precipitation patterns.  We're going to see yet more extreme precipitation events. A report issued in the fall of 1999 (San Francisco Examiner, November 7, 1999) by Britain's Meteorological Office warns that flooding will increase about ninefold over the next decades, and 80% of the increased flooding  will occur in South and Southeast Asia.  The report noted that 1998 saw record flooding, with 96 floods in 55 countries.  [70]

The IPCC now estimates that temperatures might reach as high as 11 degrees Fahrenheit by the end of  this century. Such temperature increases may lead to the flooding of more than 2 million square miles of coastal lands, displacing millions of people in Bangladesh, Egypt, China, Indonesia and very likely many in the U.S., of which 50% of the U.S population lives on or near coastal areas. 

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More Intense Hurricanes on the Way

NOAA Image Weather Channel

                                                    Hurricane Katrina Hitting New Orleans August 31, 2005

The warmer this planet gets, the warmer the Atlantic Ocean gets, bringing warmer and more moist ocean air, the fuel of hurricanes. This is why scientists and insurers fear climate change will worsen hurricanes.

The deadliest hurricanes, that is, category 4 and 5 hurricanes (See Saffir-Simpson Scale), have, during the period 1990 through 2004, almost doubled, since the period 1970 - 1985. That is, globally there has been an increase of an annual average of 10 to an annual rate of 18 category 4 and 5 hurricanes, during the years 1990 through 2004. The increase in intensity of hurricanes is the direct result of an increase in water temperature of .5 to 1 degree Fahrenheit says researcher Professor Peter Webster and other researchers. (See September 16, 2005 article in the journal Science)

As the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Administrator D. James Baker says, “Our climate is warming at a faster rate than ever before recorded. Ignoring climate change and the most recent warming patterns could be costly to the nation. Small changes in global temperatures can lead to more extreme weather events including, droughts, floods and hurricanes.”  [72]  If small changes in temperatures can effect our climate in such a big way, consider that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change now says that the temperature increase by the end of this century might reach 11 degrees Fahrenheit. [73]  Comparatively, since the depths of the last ice age 18,000 to 20,000 years ago, the increase in temperature has been about 5 to 9 degrees Fahrenheit.

Saffir-Simpson Scale
Category 1 -Winds 74-95 mph. Storm surge generally 4-5 ft above normal
Category 2 - Winds 96-110 mph. Storm surge generally 6-8 feet above normal
Category 3 - Winds 111-130 mph. Storm surge generally 9-12 ft above normal
Category 4 - Winds 131-155 mph. Storm surge generally 13-18 ft above normal
Category 5 - Winds greater than 155 miles an hour

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Heat Waves

Heat waves in August, 2003 caused an estimated 50000 deaths in Europe (National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration), 15,000 in France alone.  Three British researchers, Peter A. Stott of the University of Reading, and D.A. Stone and M.R. Allen of Oxford University, concluded that by the 2040s, half of Europe's summers are likely to be warm as Europe's 2003 killer heat wave. (See Washington Post Article December 2, 2004)

In a statement several years ago by Dr. Thomas Karl at an Ozone Action roundtable, said, “High temperatures are likely to become more extreme, and because night temperatures will increase by at least as much as daytime temperatures, heat waves should become more serious. [75]  The EPA points to one study that projects in New York City the probability of a 1°F warming which could more than double heat-related deaths during a typical summer, from about 300 today to over 700.  [76]

The following is an excerpt taken from a report by lead author Dr. Thomas Karl and other researchers: ‘It now seems probable that warming will accompany changes in regional weather. For example, longer and more intense heat waves-a likely consequence of an increase in either the mean temperature or in the variability of daily temperatures-would result in public health threats and even unprecedented levels of mortality.’ [77]

"High temperatures are likely to become more extreme, and because night temperatures will increase by at least as much as daytime temperatures, heat waves should become more serious," notes Dr. Tom Karl, director of the National Climatic Data Center (NOAA). Already we have seen killer heat waves that caused over 500 heat-related deaths in Chicago (1995) and over 250 deaths in the eastern U.S., during a period of hot weather in the fall of 1999.

World Meteorological Organization Secretary General Godwin Obasi says, “In 15 U.S. mega-cities, deaths from heatstroke during an average summer have risen significantly  in the last decade. They have now reached about 1500. But our projection is that by 2020 there could be 3000-4000 deaths in the U.S. alone.”[65]

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Increasing Power Outages or Rolling Blackouts
More intense heat waves will have a further impact. More severe heat waves will bring heavy use of air-conditioning, increasing the probability of more blackouts, as power grids are strained beyond the limit.

The combination of increasing severity of heat waves, together with a trend of electricity supply not keeping pace with demand, ultimately will lead to increases in blackouts.

In a CNN.com article on July 1, 2000, 'Heat waves likely to bring more rolling blackouts', it was reported that U.S. consumption of electricity has risen 35% during the past decade, while newly generated electric power has risen by only 18%. "During the last several summers (as of July, 2000) utilities in some parts of the country have been stretched to the limit," says Energy Secretary Bill Richardson. (68)

A study by the New York think tank, Allied Business Intelligence (ABI), says that in the next ten years, energy sources will be insufficient to meet demand throughout the U.S., except for Middle America. With a robust economy spurring the building industry, especially plans currently anticipating the building of half a million new commercial buildings annually, demand for energy is swiftly outpacing supply. According to ABI, 150 gigawatts (150 billion watts) will be needed by 2007 in the U.S. Plans call for meeting only half of that demand, says ABI.  (66)

The Alliance to Save Energy, a coalition of business, environmental, consumer and government leaders, says that a continuing trend of higher temperatures and more severe heat waves will have a role in producing more blackouts in the coming years. [71]

On June 24, 2003 Italian utilities ordered power cuts for the first time since 1981, as a heat wave pushed the national power grid close to collapse. Further blackouts were planned into July. The blackouts resulted from a nationwide heavy demand in use of air conditioners and fans, affecting 6 million people. The unrelenting heat and an accompanying drought have disrupted Italian electricity production, as diminished water power has impacted hydroelectric plants. Demand for electricity set a new summer Italian record of 52,000 megawatts.  See Environmental News Network Story
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Forests and Wildfires
As climate change progresses, weakened forests would give way to grasslands, and many forest species, some already endangered, would fade away. As some studies indicate, New England will become too warm to sustain maple forests. The EPA expects that by 2050 the range of sugar maple will extend so far north, that only a fraction of it will remain in New England. [27]  If carbon dioxide levels double in the atmosphere, there is a likelihood that the United States could experience a loss of 40% of its forests. [17]

If warming becomes severe, large areas of forest could become stressed by lack of water, increasing its vulnerability to pests and disease, thus increasing their exposure to fire. Loss of forests by fire not only throws millions of tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, but obviously loses the capacity to absorb carbon dioxide. Fire seasons may very well become longer. As Thomas Karl, director of the National Climate Data Center says,"Forest productivity is likely to increase over the next several decades in some areas as trees respond to higher carbon dioxide levels. Over the longer term, changes in larger-scale processes such as fire, insects, droughts, and disease will possibly decrease forest productivity. In addition, climate change will cause long-term shifts in forest species, such as sugar maples moving north out of the US."  (See testimony by Tom Karl before US Senate Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation)

California's Sierra Nevada forests are threatened by lack of snowfall and rain as average temperatures climb higher. In a study released August 6, 2007 by the US Geological Survey's Western Ecological Research Center, researchers Phillip J. van Mantgem and Nathan L. Stephenson determined that tree deaths in Sequoia and Yosemite National Parks increased between 1983 and 2004 by a factor of 3% per year, almost double the tree mortality within 21 years. These forests are located in arid regions of California, but climate change has made these areas even drier, weakening trees and increasing their susceptibility to fires and bark beetles.

(Note: Sometimes referenced articles are not available)

In a report on NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) web site, Dr. James Hansen says, “... that global warming, paradoxically, increases both extremes of the hydrologic cycle. It causes more intense droughts and forest fires, but, at other places and times, it causes heavier rainfall, more intense storms fueled by latent heat of water vapor, and greater flooding.”  [78]

 George M Woodwell, director of Woods Hole Research Center says, “These direct effects of climatic changes will be amplified by the expansion of the ranges of insect pests of forests, diseases of trees, and the increased frequency of fires already observed.  [79]

We are becoming more vulnerable to wildfires, such as that which occurred in Florida during the summer heat wave of 1998. About 2000 fires rampaged over 480,000 acres, damaging or destroying more than 367 homes and businesses, while injuring more than 100 people.

Richard Betts and other scientists at Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research in Britain have developed a model which shows that if the current trend in warming continues, large tracts of the Amazon will die off by end of this century. The model demonstrated a radical warming that surpassed earlier predictions of a hotter and drier Amazon. Rising global temperatures could transform one-third of the rainforest to grassland or bare soil by 2099.  [49]

Higher temperatures in Alaska favor the survival rate of beetle larvae of the spruce bark beetle during the winter months, while speeding their maturing process. As a result, there are greater populations of this beetle that have destroyed about 3 million acres of white spruce on Alaska's Kenai Peninsula. Studying the problem, entomologist, Kenneth Raffa says, "The trees have a naturally occurring insecticide in their resin, but that's ineffective against an attack this large." This forest is now highly vulnerable to fire, which could, of course, spread to adjacent healthy forests. [52]

An epidemic of tree-killing beetles is spreading rapidly through the forests in Canada's largest lumber exporting province, with the deadly insects now found in a area nearly three-quarters the size of Sweden, officials said. The tiny pine beetles, which have been spreading almost unchecked through British Columbia for several years because of unusually warm winters, have seriously infested 9 million acres (3.6 million hectares) of forests and have now destroyed up 108 million cubic metres of lodgepole pine timber. Provincial officials tracking the beetle infestation warned in a report that the amount of destroyed trees could reach 150 million cubic metres next year unless the weather turns cold enough to kill larvae before they hatch. This year's winter (2002-03) in the Cariboo Region where the bugs have hit the hardest is not expected to be particularly cold. Officials said the number of trees killed in the infested area varies from area to area, but the critical infestation is considered to cover 9 million acres in the province's Interior region, up from 8 million acres last year. "This is clearly an epidemic of catastrophic proportion," said Larry Pedersen, British Columbia's chief forester. As on the Kenai Peninsula (see above), this could make the British Columbia forests more vulnerable to fire. See Planet Ark story for more detail. (Note: Sometimes referenced articles are not available)

Global Warming, Forests & Bark Beetles
Higher temperatures in Alaska favor the survival rate of beetle larvae of the spruce bark beetle during the winter months, while speeding their maturing process. As a result, there are greater populations of this beetle that have destroyed about 3 million acres of white spruce on Alaska's Kenai Peninsula. Studying the problem, entomologist, Kenneth Raffa says, "The trees have a naturally occurring insecticide in their resin, but that's ineffective against an attack this large." This forest is now highly vulnerable to fire, which could, of course, spread to adjacent healthy forests. [52]

An epidemic of tree-killing beetles is spreading rapidly through the forests in Canada's largest lumber exporting province, with the deadly insects now found in a area nearly three-quarters the size of Sweden, officials said. The tiny pine beetles, which have been spreading almost unchecked through British Columbia for several years because of unusually warm winters, have seriously infested 9 million acres (3.6 million hectares) of forests and have now destroyed up 108 million cubic metres of lodgepole pine timber. Provincial officials tracking the beetle infestation warned in a report that the amount of destroyed trees could reach 150 million cubic metres next year unless the weather turns cold enough to kill larvae before they hatch. This year's winter (2002-03) in the Cariboo Region where the bugs have hit the hardest is not expected to be particularly cold. Officials said the number of trees killed in the infested area varies from area to area, but the critical infestation is considered to cover 9 million acres in the province's Interior region, up from 8 million acres last year. "This is clearly an epidemic of catastrophic proportion," said Larry Pedersen, British Columbia's chief forester. As on the Kenai Peninsula (see above), this could make the British Columbia forests more vulnerable to fire. See Planet Ark story for more detail. (Note: Sometimes referenced articles are not available)

Warmer winters in Wyoming and Yellowstone National Park are also finding healthier populations of bark beetles in whitebark pines, one of  the main food sources for grizzly bears. See NRDC Report With whitebark pines threatened by extinction, we could lose the remaining 1000 grizzly bears, now living mostly in Yellowstone and Glacier National Park.

Colorado's Rocky Mountains are losing to pine bark beetles as they decimate millions of trees at altitudes where these insects had never reached before. Read more about the threat these beetles pose and listen to a report by Aspen NPR's Kurt Stiegler.

Threat to Boreal Forests

Boreal forests extend across two continents along the subarctic latitudes and occupy about 14.5 percent of Earth's land surface. These forests cover an area estimated 6.4 million square miles (16.6 million square kilometers) or almost twice the size of the United States.  They reach across Alaska, Canada, Scotland, Norway, Finland, Sweden and Russia and are on the way to becoming, like its neighboring biome, the tundra, a net emitter of carbon dioxide. 

The boreal forests in North America stretch across the top of the continent from interior Alaska to Newfoundland, and from the tundra to temperate forests and grasslands hundreds of miles south. There are in this region 1.4 billion acres of forest (mostly in Canada) reaching an area almost 6800 miles wide, enough to hold 14 Californias.

Since the 1960’s forest fires in North America’s Boreal forests have doubled to about 7.6 million acres burned annually, and bark beetles have contributed by killing vast stretches of forest. In Russia boreal forests are much larger than in North America, and an estimated 25 million acres of forest burn annually. “The more death (from bark beetles) and destruction you have in these forests, the more fires you will have and the more carbon you will see released into the atmosphere,” says Benjamin Preston, senior research fellow at the Pew Center on Global Climate Change.

<>While the lower moderate latitudes have seen temperature increases of a little over 1 degree Fahrenheit, the subarctic regions have seen about a 4 degree increase. Ed Holsten ,an entomologist with the U.S. Forest Service in Alaska says, "In Alaska, the distribution of plants and animals is controlled by climate," said Holsten. "Any subtle change in temperature will affect insects. Spruce bark beetles usually have a two-year cycle, but warmer temperatures can cause them to complete their cycle in one year. So a lot more are being bred at one time." The high temperatures have increased the survivability of bark beetles in the boreal forests. In Alaska the survival rate of beetle larvae of the spruce bark beetle during the winter months has increased, while also speeding their maturing process. As a result, there are greater populations of this beetle that have destroyed about 3 million acres of white sp